What is the Great Stay?
In most U.S. markets, homeowners move every 7–10 years. In the Bay Area, staying in the same home for 20 years—or longer—has become increasingly common. This trend, often called “The Great Stay,” is one of the most important forces shaping today’s East Bay real estate market.
While interest rates and short-term price changes get the headlines, the real driver oflow housing turnover is structural. A combination of tax policy, home appreciation, mortgage rates, and limited supply has created powerful incentives for homeowners to stay put.
What Is the “Great Stay”?
The “Great Stay” refers to Bay Area homeowners holding onto their properties for decades—not because they can’t move, but because financially, it often makes little sense to do so.
Selling a longtime home frequently means:
- A sharp increase in property taxes
- A much higher mortgage interest rate
- Higher monthly housing costs, even when downsizing
For many owners, staying put is the most rational option.
Why Homeowners Aren’t Moving
Proposition 13 and Property Taxes
Proposition 13 caps property tax increases based on the original purchase price.bLongtime homeowners often pay far less in taxes than a new buyer would today. Sellingbresets that tax base, sometimes doubling or tripling annual property taxes.
Significant Home Appreciation
Decades of appreciation—driven by tech, education, and economic growth—have created substantial homeowner wealth. However, replacing that home at today’s prices can be costly, even for high-income households.
Ultra-Low Mortgage Rates
Many homeowners locked in mortgage rates near 3% or lower. Buying a new home today often means accepting a rate closer to 6% or more, resulting in significantly higher monthly payments.
The Lock-In Effect
When low property taxes, low mortgage rates, and high values combine, homeowners feel financially “locked in.” This keeps homes off the market and limits available inventory.
Economic Demand and Geography
The Bay Area’s job market, universities, and geographic constraints continue to attract demand while limiting new construction—further reinforcing long-term homeownership.
How the “Great Stay” Impacts the Market
- Low Inventory: Fewer homes for sale keeps competition strong and prices resilient
- Aging in Place: Homeowners are staying longer, reshaping neighborhood demographics
- Affordability Challenges: New buyers face limited options in a market defined by long-term ownership
Final Thoughts
The Bay Area housing market isn’t stalled—it’s anchored. The “Great Stay” explains why inventory remains tight and why housing decisions today require careful planning,
not just market timing. For some homeowners, staying put is the smartest financial move. For others, there may be opportunities worth exploring with the right strategy. If you’d like help evaluating what staying or selling looks like in today’s East Bay market, I’m always happy to talk through the numbers.
Quick Answer:
The “Great Stay” describes the trend of Bay Area homeowners holding onto their homes for decades due to low property taxes, low mortgage rates, and high replacement costs—keeping inventory low and competition strong.