Bay Area Real Estate Outlook
After years of extreme volatility, 2025 brought something the region hasn’t seen in a while: a more predictable pace. Prices are cooling slightly, bidding wars have eased, and the market is normalizing from pandemic-era highs, while fundamentals remain strong.
As of spring 2025, the median home value in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro area sits at roughly $1.18M, up 0.6% year-over-year. Homes are selling in an average of about two weeks, signaling steady demand, just less intensity.
Danville + East Bay: A Closer Look
Zooming into the East Bay, and Danville specifically, market conditions reflect this same shift toward balance, but with local nuances that matter:
- Danville homes remain among the most valuable in the region, with the median price near $1.8M–$1.85M.
- Prices have softened modestly, down about 5%–10% year over year depending on data source and segment.
- Days on market have increased to roughly 30 days, signaling more thoughtful buyer decision-making.
- Inventory has grown significantly, giving buyers more choice and reducing bidding pressure.
The result: Danville and nearby East Bay communities are experiencing a transition away from the seller-dominant frenzy of 2021–2022 and into conditions that are far more balanced, without meaningfully reducing long-term demand.
What’s Driving the Shift?
Three forces stand out:
1. Interest Rates
Higher rates continue to cool activity, though easing rates may reignite momentum.
2. Tech Trends
As hiring and stock performance stabilize (or accelerate) real estate activity is likely to follow.
3. Supply
Lower inventory has been the Bay Area’s defining challenge for years. Even with East Bay listings rising, overall supply remains far below long-term demand.
Market Segments to Watch
Across the Bay Area and East Bay, trends vary by price and property type:
1. Luxury
Higher-priced homes (especially above $3M in Danville, Blackhawk, Alamo, and San Ramon) are seeing more price adjustment and longer days on market.
2. Entry-Level + Mid-Tier
Homes priced around $1.1M–$1.5M continue to sell briskly, especially near top schools, trails, and transit.
3.. Walkability + Lifestyle Zones
Downtown Danville, Walnut Creek, Alameda, and Oakland’s urban cores remain highly competitive, supported by lifestyle amenities and buyer lifestyle priorities.
2026 Outlook
While modest price softening is expected to continue into mid-2026, most signs point to stabilization later in the year, and the return of gradual appreciation. The East Bay remains fundamentally strong: jobs, weather, schools, safety, culture, and California demand dynamics haven’t changed. The national real estate scene in 2026 is much different than the East Bay.
For sellers: pricing strategy matters more than ever.
For buyers: this may be the most favorable window since 2019.
For anyone considering a move: conditions are becoming healthier, clearer, and more navigable.
Quick Answer:
The Bay Area real estate market is transitioning into a more balanced phase. Prices have softened slightly, inventory has increased, and demand remains steady—creating clearer conditions for buyers and sellers heading into 2026.